Why Is the Pokémon TCG Market Facing Shortages and Price Surges?

The Pokémon Trading Card Game market is facing challenges lately.

These are marked by product shortages and skyrocketing prices. If you've been trying to get your hands on the latest sets or even staple cards, you've likely encountered sold-out shelves, no more pre-orders, and inflated resale prices. But what exactly is causing this turmoil in the Pokémon TCG market?

Let's look at 4 factors behind these shortages and price surges.

1. Supply and Demand Imbalance

One of the primary reasons for the ongoing shortages is an overwhelming imbalance between supply and demand.

The release of the highly anticipated "Prismatic Evolutions" set in January 2025 sparked a buying frenzy. Preorders sold out at record speeds, and many stores reported receiving only 10-15% of their requested stock. Despite The Pokémon Company printing cards at maximum capacity, the demand continues to outpace the supply, leading to widespread frustration among fans.

Why is demand so high?

The popularity of Pokémon TCG has been on the rise, fueled by nostalgia, the growing competitive scene, and the allure of rare, valuable cards.

Influencer hype and the fear of missing out (FOMO) have also contributed to this surge in demand. However, the production capacity has struggled to keep up, causing shortages that ripple across the market.

2. Speculation and Scalping

Speculation and scalping are significant contributors to the current crisis.

Opportunistic buyers purchase large quantities of products with the intent to resell them at inflated prices, often targeting limited-edition sets and rare cards. This practice not only exacerbates the scarcity but also makes it increasingly difficult for genuine collectors to access products at reasonable prices. In Spain, for example, speculation around the "Prismatic Evolutions" set led to extreme stock shortages. Products were hoarded and resold at exorbitant prices online, creating widespread frustration. 

The speculative buying trend isn't new, but its impact has been magnified in the current market climate.

3. Criminal Activities and Theft

The high value of Pokémon cards has unfortunately attracted criminal activity.

Hobby stores, particularly in Melbourne, Australia, have been targeted by thieves, resulting in losses ranging from $20,000 to $100,000 per incident. Store owners are now calling for stricter security measures and greater law enforcement attention to curb these thefts. The rise in theft is largely driven by the cards' increasing value, with certain rare pulls selling for thousands of dollars on the secondary market.

The fear of robbery has even led some retailers to limit their in-store inventory, contributing further to the product scarcity.

4. Market Volatility and Price Inflation

The combination of supply shortages, speculative buying, and criminal activity has led to unprecedented price inflation in the Pokémon TCG market.

Reports indicate that prices have surged by up to 150% in just three months. This volatility isn't just affecting high-end collectors; even staple cards necessary for competitive play are becoming prohibitively expensive. This market instability has also discouraged new players from joining the hobby, as the cost of building a competitive deck continues to rise.

Meanwhile, veteran collectors face tough decisions about whether to sell or hold onto their valuable cards amidst fluctuating prices.